Post by cerridwen on Dec 28, 2008 7:44:47 GMT
By Alister Doyle, Environment Correspondent
OSLO (Reuters) - Tough targets for avoiding dangerous global warming may be easier to achieve than widely believed, according to a study that could ease fears of a prohibitive long-term surge in costs.
The report, by scientists in the Netherlands and Germany, indicated that initial investments needed to be high to have any impact in slowing temperature rises. Beyond a certain threshold, however, extra spending would have clear returns on warming.
Until now, most governments have worried that costs may start low and then soar -- suggesting that ambitious targets will become too expensive for tackling threats such as extinctions, droughts, floods and rising seas.
"It gets easier once the world gets going ... ," said Michiel Schaeffer of Wageningen University in the Netherlands and lead author of the study in Tuesday's edition of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Science.
"In a sense ... our paper is bad news: doing a bit is hardly effective," he told Reuters. "On the other hand it's good news, because the return on the really 'painful' investments later on, of which the world is so afraid, gives you much better returns."
More than 190 governments have agreed to work out a new U.N. climate treaty by the end of 2009. Global economic slowdown is making many wary of setting too strict goals.
The article suggested there was a 90 percent chance of limiting global warming to 2 Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above 19th century levels with average annual global investments of 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) from 2005-2100.
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OSLO (Reuters) - Tough targets for avoiding dangerous global warming may be easier to achieve than widely believed, according to a study that could ease fears of a prohibitive long-term surge in costs.
The report, by scientists in the Netherlands and Germany, indicated that initial investments needed to be high to have any impact in slowing temperature rises. Beyond a certain threshold, however, extra spending would have clear returns on warming.
Until now, most governments have worried that costs may start low and then soar -- suggesting that ambitious targets will become too expensive for tackling threats such as extinctions, droughts, floods and rising seas.
"It gets easier once the world gets going ... ," said Michiel Schaeffer of Wageningen University in the Netherlands and lead author of the study in Tuesday's edition of the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Science.
"In a sense ... our paper is bad news: doing a bit is hardly effective," he told Reuters. "On the other hand it's good news, because the return on the really 'painful' investments later on, of which the world is so afraid, gives you much better returns."
More than 190 governments have agreed to work out a new U.N. climate treaty by the end of 2009. Global economic slowdown is making many wary of setting too strict goals.
The article suggested there was a 90 percent chance of limiting global warming to 2 Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit) above 19th century levels with average annual global investments of 2 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) from 2005-2100.
SPENDING MORE Continued...
View article on single page
Previous Page 1 | 2 Next Page