Post by warriorwitch on May 31, 2006 16:38:41 GMT
Energy Efficiency
E05-07, Tilting at Energy Windmills (PDF-175k)
Suddenly, lots more people are paying attention to Amory Lovins. Mr. Lovins's basic thesis: Energy efficiency is good business because it cuts costs—and that big moves to boost efficiency are better, and ultimately cheaper, than little ones. His latest grand idea: that the U.S. can drastically slash its oil consumption by shifting its auto fleet to vehicles built with carbon composites. This article appeared in The Wall Street Journal (25 July 2005).
E05-02, Ending Our Oil Dependence (PDF-388k)
The United States has the world's mightiest economy and most mobile society. Yet the oil that fueled its strength has become its greatest weakness. The United States can eliminate its oil dependence and revitalize its economy—not by passing federal laws, taxing fuels, biasing markets, subsidizing favorites, mandating technologies, limiting choices, or crimping lifestyles, but by adopting smart business strategies. If government steers, not rows, then competitive enterprise, supported by judicious policy and vibrant civil society, can turn the oil challenge into an unprecedented opportunity for wealth creation and common security. This article appeared in The Ripon Forum; Volume 39, Number II (March/April 2005).
E04-21, How America Can Free Itself of Oil—Profitably (PDF-36k)
Amory Lovins's two-page FORTUNE essay summarizes for business leaders how the strategy in RMI's WInning the Oil Endgame (www.oilendgame.org) can get the U.S. completely off oil at a profit and revitalize the nation's industrial and farming sectors. This article appeared in FORTUNE magazine (04 October 2004).
E04-02, Energy Efficiency, Taxonomic Overview (PDF-400k)
Efficient use of energy is in all countries the most important, economical, prompt, underused, overlooked, and misunderstood way to provide future energy services. It is rapidly becoming even larger, faster, and cheaper as technologies, delivery methods, and integrative design improve. Whole-system design can indeed make very large energy savings cost less than small ones. But capturing energy efficiency's remarkable potential requires careful terminology, prioritization, attention to engineering details and to market failures, and willingness to accept measured physical realities even if they conflict with economic theories. If well done, such energy efficiency can displace costly and disagreeable energy supplies, enhance security and prosperity, speed global development, and protect Earth's climate—not at cost but at a profit. This article appeared in the Encyclopedia of Energy, Volume 2. pages 383–401 (23 July 2004).
E03-13, Designing a Sustainable Energy Future—Integrating Negawatts with Diverse Supplies at Least Cost (PDF-3.2 MB)
Keynoting Australia's first national conference on energy efficiency, Amory Lovins integrates exciting opportunities in advanced electric, heat, and transport efficiency with their ability to accelerate distributed generation and renewable sources (13 November 2003).
E03-11, Natural Capitalism and the New North Carolina Economy (PDF-3.8 MB)
In this presentation, given at the Save Our State Awards Dinner, Raleigh, North Carolina, Amory Lovins explains the principles of natural capitalism and the four kinds of capital: money, goods, people and nature (27 October 2003).
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Fuel Cells & Hydrogen
E04-05, Inflating Hydrogen Needs (PDF-64k)
In an unpublished letter to Science, Amory Lovins points out that CalTech researchers overstated by about tenfold the amount of hydrogen that would be needed to run the U.S. economy. This continues a series of technical errors by the same group, including its famous two-order-of-magnitude overestimate of how much hydrogen might leak from a hydrogen-based energy system, ostensibly endangering the ozone layer. See E03-02 (02 February 2004).
E03-15, Hydrogen: The Future of Energy (PDF-1.3 MB)
Public interest in hydrogen as a fuel for the future has reached an all-time high. Yet conflicting, confusing, and often ill-informed commentary accompanies the excitement. This PowerPoint presentation explains basic hydrogen facts and fallacies. This presentation was given by Amory Lovins at the Given Institute, Aspen, Colorado (06 August 2003).
E03-07, Hydrogen Economy: Not So Difficult—Without Nuclear Power (PDF-136k)
RMI's CEO Amory Lovins replies to a Nature article by EPRI's Paul Grant, who claimed that a hydrogen economy would be impractical (taking too much land, capital, fossil fuel, etc.)...except with nuclear power, whose dismal economics he conveniently ignored (23 August 2003).
E03-05, Twenty Hydrogen Myths (PDF-350k)
This documented white paper demystifies hydrogen energy, debunks popular misconceptions, and proposes a surprisingly easy, attractive, and profitable path to the hydrogen economy (23 June 2003).
E03-02, Rebuttal to Tromp et al's Response in Science, Science magazine (PDF-136k)
Amory Lovins argues that the authors of the erroneous Science (www.sciencemag.org) article claiming enormous hydrogen leaks have misinterpreted their references (again) in an effort to conceal their original mistake (13 October 2003).
U02-02, Cleaner Energy, Greener Profits (PDF-1.5 MB)
This research paper explores the cost-effectiveness of fuel cells as an electrical generation source to provide domestic, commercial and industrial power. Cleaner Energy, Greener Profits finds that, over the next decade, the once-centralized electric power industry will evolve toward a more competitive and heterogeneous structure. In this new environment, the use of fuel cells will become economical if their proponents can capture their benefits as small, decentralized power sources. Fuel cells and other distributed generation sources require less power distribution infrastructure (wires and transformers) because they can be sited close to where power is used. They are cleaner and quieter than conventional power generation sources, so they can be located near or inside buildings where their output is used. Because fuel cells are modular and flexible in size, they don't result in overbuilding of capacity as do large power plants. Also, they can provide power with better reliability than conventional systems (2002).
E00-25, Hypercars, Hydrogen, and Distributed Utilities: Disruptive Technologies and Gas-Industry Strategy (PDF-1.5 MB)
This PowerPoint presentation informed the American Gas Association's joint marketing/operations conference of how Hypercars' multiple roles, in transportation and power generation, could profoundly affect fuel markets (09 May 2000).
T99-07, A Strategy for the Hydrogen Transition (PDF-144k)
This paper illustrates how the careful coordination of fuel-cell commercialization in stationary and transportation applications, the use of small-scale, distributed fueling appliances, and Hypercar® vehicles combine to offer leapfrog opportunities for climate protection and the transition to hydrogen (1999).
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Energy Policy
E06-02, How Innovative Technologies, Business Strategies, and Policies Can Dramatically Enhance Energy Security and Prosperity (PDF-400k)
This invited Senate Energy Committee testimony by RMI's CEO Amory Lovins tersely outlines how a least-cost national energy strategy can strengthen the United States and make the world safer—and how current national energy policy has unwittingly become a major threat to security (07 March 2006).
E05-04, Energy Policy for National Insecurity (PDF-##k)
(Report Coming Soon).
See also detailed Methodology for nuclear comparisons with supply-side competitors and Excel spreadsheet along with graph of Global Annual Additions of Electrical Generating Capacity. See also two additional graphs, showing Low- or No-Carbon Worldwide Electrical Output and Installed Electrical Generating Capacity (except large hydro).
E04-10, Reforming the Automobile Fuel Economy Standards Program (PDF-160k)
The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) is at a critical juncture. Setting the wrong policy will not only lastingly harm the national interest in saving lives, oil, and emissions. It will also degrade the competitive prospects of U.S. automakers by encouraging them to make vehicles that increasingly are unsaleable abroad. Many policymakers in Europe, Japan, China, and Canada don't share the view that light vehicles, except perhaps the heaviest, must stay heavy for safety (or that CO2 isn't important). As U.S. OEMs struggle with eroding market share and strive to globalize their operations, further perverse U.S. regulatory incentives are the last thing they need. Amory Lovins's letter to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (26 April 2004).
S03-03, We Can Take Politics Out of Energy Policy, Dallas Morning News (PDF-110k)
In a Dallas Morning News (www.dallasnews.com) op-ed (18 May 2003), President Reagan's National Security Advisor, Robert C. McFarlane, and RMI's CEO Amory Lovins summarize how the National Energy Policy Initiative's consensus-based process (www.nepinitiative.org) can help lead the U.S. out of the political thickets and to an effective policy framework (07 July 2003).
E02-16, Scenario Analysis of Alternative Electric Resource Options for the City of San Francisco (PDF-300k)
RMI is assisting the City of San Francisco in the development of data, analysis and program design in support a comprehensive "energy resource investment strategy" (ERIS). The ERIS prioritizes the City's electric resource options based on cost, performance and environmental impact. The options include energy efficiency, co-generation, solar and wind power, as well as conventional gas-fired generation and new transmission lines. RMI is also helping the City to design policies and programs to improve energy efficiency and harness distributed and renewable energy resources, while insuring an adequate and reliable supply of electricity for its residents. In the first phase of this work, RMI prepared this scenario analysis for inclusion in the preliminary San Francisco Electricity Resource Plan. More detailed analysis and program design is on-going (2002).
E02-11, Fuzzy Math, Foreign Affairs (PDF-44k)
The January/February 2002 issue of Foreign Affairs, published the letter "Fuzzy Math," (p. 233) from Lucian B. Platt, Professor of Geology Emeritus, Bryn Mawr College, responding to Amory and Hunter Lovins's Foreign Affairs article on ANWR drilling. This paper includes Professor Platt's letter followed by the Lovinses' response (February 2002).
(correspondence about E01-04, "Fool's Gold in Alaska" below)
E02-07, Accelerating Renewables: Expanding the Policy and Marketing Toolkit (PDF-1.7 MB)
This keynote presentation was given to a meeting of the American Renewable Energy Council. It suggests a dozen new ways—beyond traditional price and regulatory instruments—for speeding the adoption of renewable energy. Keynote given by Amory Lovins (July 2002).
E02-01, Mobilizing Energy Solutions, The American Prospect (PDF-52k)
America is at war. The economy is down. Global prosperity, stability, and environment are at risk. Domestic politics are reverting to gridlock, driven by the coming battle for both houses of Congress. And energy policy, strongly polarized, is back on the agenda. This article by Amory B. Lovins and L. Hunter Lovins envisions a fresh, trans-ideological, consensus-based approach to U.S. energy policy. It first appeared in The American Prospect, 28 January 2002. This is the first article in a two-part series. The second article, E02-01a Energy Forever, appeared in the 11 February 2002 issue of The American Prospect (11 February 2002).
Written with the generous support of the Overbrook Foundation, J.M. Kaplan Fund, and Compton Foundation.
E02-01a, Energy Forever, The American Prospect (PDF-48k)
Energy systems designed to be efficient, decentralized, and diversified are what national security demands, the public wants, and the market is ready to supply. This article by Amory B. Lovins and L. Hunter Lovins first appeared in The American Prospect, 11 February 2002. This is the second article in a two-part series. The first article, E02-01 Mobilizing Energy Solutions, appeared in the 28 January 2002 issue of The American Prospect (28 January 2002).
Written with the generous support of the Overbrook Foundation, J.M. Kaplan Fund, and Compton Foundation.
U01-13, The Hidden Economic Benefits of Distributed Generation (PDF-2.1 MB)
This PowerPoint presentation is entitled "Small Is Profitable: The Hidden Economic Benefits of Distributed Generation (and Other Distributed Resources)." This presentation was given at the Australian EcoGeneration Conference (13 March 2002).
E01-04, Fool's Gold in Alaska—annotated, Foreign Affairs (PDF-980k)
This version of the Foreign Affairs article is fully annotated by the author and supplemented by late-breaking news. The unannotated article appeared in Foreign Affairs, www.foreignaffairs.org (July/August 2001). Also see E02-11, "Fuzzy Math," correspondence about "Fool's Gold in Alaska."
Updates to the Annotations to "Fool's Gold in Alaska," Foreign Affairs.
E01-03, Fool's Gold in Alaska—original, Foreign Affairs (PDF-114k)
Proposed drilling for oil beneath the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge is claimed to provide economic and energy-security benefits in exchange for environmental of disputed magnitude. In fact, the oil drilling couldn't enhance prosperity or security, but would compromise both. However, far larger, cheaper and faster alternatives, notably the more efficient use of oil, could achieve all three goals, and would make a better cornerstone for national energy strategy. This article, by Amory Lovins and Hunter Lovins, appeared in Foreign Affairs, www.foreignaffairs.org (July/August 2001). Also see E02-11, "Fuzzy Math," correspondence about "Fool's Gold in Alaska."
Updates to the Annotations to "Fool's Gold in Alaska," Foreign Affairs.
E01-20, Amory Lovins's presentation to the Commonwealth Club (PDF-121k)
What happened, and what didn't happen, to California electricity? Amory Lovins's nationally NPR-broadcast address to the Commonwealth Club of San Francisco briskly demystifies this tangled tale. (Lightly edited for easier reading. A minimally-corrected "raw" transcript of "Electricity Solutions for California" is posted at Commonwealth Club website) (11 July 2001).
E01-07, An Eight-Fold Way Towards Faster Energy Efficiency (PDF-1.0MB)
Keynoting the June 2001 Summer Study of the European Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy, Amory Lovins presented a new synthesis of eight ways to accelerate energy efficiency. Such a diverse, trans-ideological portfolio of policy approaches should work better and faster than just prices and regulation (12 June 2001).
U01-02, California Electricity: Facts, Myths, and National Lessons (PDF-550k)
This PowerPoint presentation is entitled "California Electricity: Facts, Myths, and National Lessons." These handout graphics for Amory Lovins's presentation to the Commonwealth Club were slightly updated for a Worldwatch Institute symposium held eleven days later in Aspen, Colorado (22 July 2001).
E99-16, Energy Surprises for the 21st Century (PDF-164k)
A good summary of RMI's perspective on energy trends (Fall 1999).
E98-03, Negawatts for Fabs: Advanced Energy Productivity for Fun and Profit (PDF-386k)
Slide presentation discussing the benefits of energy retrofits. Given by Amory Lovins to the NSF/SRC Environmentally Benign Semiconductor Manufacturing Engineering Research Center (August 1998).
U96-11, Negawatts: Twelve Transitions, Eight Improvements, and One Distraction (PDF-166k)
Full text of an invited review article for Energy Policy's April 1996 special issue on the future of demand-side management (April 1996).
U95-37, FERC Letter Regarding Mega-NOPR (PDF-36k)
This letter, to the Secretary of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), comments on two aspects of the Commission's 29 March 1995 Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on openaccess transmission: namely, the treatment of demand-side options (end-use efficiency and load management) and the potential for new dispersed generators whose total cost undercuts the short-run marginal wholesale power cost (24 July 1995).
U94-17, Negawatts: Is There Life After the CPUC Order? (PDF-60k)
The presentation addresses what they did, what they propose to do, motives, assurances, and basic isues. Keynote address by Amory Lovins, Director of Research, Rocky Mountain Institute, to the National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners (16 May 1994).
E90-20, The Negawatt Revolution (PDF-225k)
Using existing technology we can save three fourths of all electricity used today. The best energy policy for the nation, for business, and for the environment is one that focuses on using electricity efficiently—for it's the only policy that makes economic sense. This article appeared in The Conference Board Magazine, Vol. XXVII No. 9 (September 1990).
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Nuclear Energy
See also: E05-04, Energy Policy for National Insecurity.
E06-04, Nuclear Power: Competitive Economics and Climate-Protection Potential (PDF-3.6 MB)
In this influential lecture to Britain's Royal Academy of Engineering on 13 May 2006, RMI's CEO Amory Lovins shows that nuclear power has been eclipsed in the global marketplace by cheaper, faster, bigger alternatives-thus accelerating, not retarding, profitable climate protection. (10 April 2006).
E05-15, Mighty Mice (PDF-595k)
The most powerful force resisting new nuclear may be a legion of small, fast and simple microgeneration and efficiency projects. In this guest article in the UK-published Nuclear Engineering International, Amory Lovins explains to the industry who its most formidable competitors are: not central coal- or gas-fired power plants, but micropower and efficient use. These are already adding more than ten times as much global capacity per year, and, being much cheaper, provide more climate solution per dollar and per year. (29 December 2005).
E05-10, Pebble Bed Modular Reactors–Status and Prospects (PDF-150k)
Economist and nuclear expert Jim Harding, former Director of Power Planning and Forecasting for Seattle's municipal utility, has updated his February 2004 paper on modular gas-cooled nuclear reactors. So few independent commentaries are available on this widely touted proposal by developers in South Africa (and, with variations, in China) that RMI is pleased to post his paper here by kind permission. Harding's economic analysis now looks prescient in light of a dismal economic assessment leaking out of South Africa (www.neimagazine.com/story.asp?storyCode=2030985) (06 September 2005).
E05-09, Nuclear Power: Economic Fundamentals and Potential Role in Climate Change Mitigation (PDF-2.0 MB)
The PowerPoint slides from Amory Lovins's 16 August 2005 invited testimony to the California Energy Commission (in .PDF format) outline why nuclear power's inherently high cost and slow deployment make it a counterproductive answer to climate change. The world market is instead buying end-use efficiency, decentralized renewables, and low-carbon fossil-fueled cogeneration faster and on a larger scale, and those superior investments will save more carbon sooner per dollar. For a documented narrative version, please see E05-08, Nuclear Power: Economics and Climate-Protection Potential (05 September 2005).
E05-14, Nuclear Power: Economics and Climate-Protection Potential—06 January 2006 (PDF-475k)
E05-08, Nuclear Power: Economics and Climate-Protection Potential—11 September 2005 (PDF-535k)
Amory Lovins documents a dramatic and little-known development: worldwide, efficient use of electricity plus decentralized low- or no-carbon electric generation are already at least twice as big as nuclear power and growing an order of magnitude faster, simply because they cost far less. New nuclear plants not only can't compete with central coal and gas plants, but also can't compete by hopelessly wide margins with these cheaper decentralized alternatives. Nuclear investments would only reduce and retard the reduction of carbon dioxide emissions, because they'd save far less carbon per dollar and provide less new electricity per year. These differences, once hypothetical, are now richly confirmed by actual market behavior. See also E05-08b, Post printing corrections (PDF-80k) and E05-09, Nuclear Power: Economic Fundamentals and Potential Role in Climate Change Mitigation, from which this paper is adapted and reorganized (05 September 2005).
www.rmi.org/sitepages/pid171.php